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Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Sciences cognitives
Scenarios
Prognose
Psychologie sociale
Society
Reasoning
Economic forecasting
Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Cognitive psychology
Methode
Forecasting
Analysis
Decision making
SOCIAL SCIENCE
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
Psychology
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ …
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